Dear Trader…
Markets ended almost unchanged in a volatile trading session, in continuation to the prevailing consolidation phase. After the initial uptick, the Nifty index gradually drifted lower as the session progressed however buying in the select heavyweights capped the downside. Meanwhile, sectoral indices traded mixed wherein auto and IT managed to post decent gains while realty, metal and pharma lost nearly a percent each. The broader indices continued their underperformance and that resulted in weak market breadth.
The lack of sustainability in the index at higher levels is largely reflecting misalignment among the key sectors and restricted participation. Besides, mixed global cues and earnings are further adding to the volatility.
Nifty futures opened at 18210.00 points against the previous close of 18148.15 and opened at a low of 18100.05 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 118.40 points and a decline of around 19.90 points and 18128.25 points...!!
On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will decline 0.39% and smallcap 100 index is closing decline 0.37%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, the NSE saw gains in only Auto, IT, Media, FMCG and Financial Services, while all other sectoral indices closed lower.
At the start of intra-day trading, January gold opened at Rs.56986, fell from a high of Rs.57125 points to a low of Rs.56975 with a rise of 188 points, a trend of around Rs.57003 and January Silver opened at Rs.68212, fell from a high of Rs.68635 points to a low of Rs.68212, with a rise of 596 points, a trend of around Rs.68560.
India is likely to peg its nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth at around 11% in the annual budget next week, marking a slowdown from its estimate for the current fiscal year due to the prospect of weak exports, two government officials said. Nominal GDP growth - which includes inflation and is the benchmark used to estimate tax collections - could be pressured by suppressed external demand next year due to a likely U.S. recession, said the sources, who declined to be named as discussions are not yet public.
The government expects nominal growth of 15.4% for the current fiscal year that ends on March 31. With nominal GDP of 10.6%-11%, India's gross tax collection growth rate is likely to be around 8% in 2023/24, compared with 14.5% in the current year, due to base effect, said Gaura Sengupta, an economist at IDFC First Bank. India's finance ministry did not reply to an email and a message seeking comments. "The biggest risk to these estimates is the interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is expected to tip their economy into recession, hurting India's exports," one of the officials told Reuters.
The official added that a fall in exports and a continued rise in imports to support domestic consumption would lead to a widening current account deficit (CAD). India's CAD was 4.4% of GDP in the July-September quarter, higher than 2.2% a quarter ago and 1.3% a year ago, as rising commodity prices and a weak rupee increased the trade gap. The real GDP growth is expected to be pegged at 6.0%-6.5% in the Economic Survey of 2022/23, one of the officials said. The second official said it would be under 7%.
Technically, the important key resistances are placed in Nifty future are at 18180 levels, which could offer for the market on the higher side. Sustainability above this zone would signal opens the door for a directional up move with immediate resistances seen at 18202 – 18232 levels. Immediate support is placed at 18008 – 17808 levels.
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