Dear Trader…
Indian equity benchmarks ended the last trading session of the financial year 2021-22 (FY22) on a lower note, on the back of negative cues from other Asian markets. Key indices made positive start as traders took some support with the International Monetary Fund stating that India, which has received a record number of foreign direct investment during the last few years despite COVID-19 crisis, has quite a few safeguards in place to mitigate the risks from capital flows. Traders took note of union Minister of State for MSME Bhanu Pratap Singh Verma’s statement that Government has been putting special focus to bring MSMEs into the defence supply chain and thereby boosting self-reliance of the country.
However, key gauges gave up early gains to settle lower, as traders got anxious as India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) lowered India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 7-7.2 per cent for FY23, from 7.6 per cent projected earlier, citing the rising uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine war and the resultant dampening of consumer sentiment.
Nifty futures opened at 17519.55 points against the previous close of 17515.40 and opened at a low of 17436.75 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 119.05 points and a decline of around 51.65 points and 17216.55 points...!!
On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise 0.34% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise 0.69%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only Pharma, PSU Bank, IT, Financial Services and Metal stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.
At the start of intra-day trading, April gold opened at Rs.50906, fell from a high of Rs.51230 points to a low of Rs.50906 with a rise of 263 points, a trend of around Rs.51216 and March Silver opened at Rs.67187, fell from a high of Rs.67516 points to a low of Rs.66550, with a rise of 110 points, a trend of around Rs.67516.
Meanwhile, Citing the rising uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine war and the resultant dampening of consumer sentiment, India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has lowered India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 7-7.2 per cent for FY23, from 7.6 per cent projected earlier. It said that since the duration of the war continues to be uncertain, in the first scenario crude oil prices could remain elevated for three months, and in the second case for six months.
India Ratings chief economist Devendra Pant and principal economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said if crude prices remain high for three months, FY23 GDP could grow by 7.2 per cent; in case it lasts longer, then growth will be 7 per cent, down from 7.6 per cent projected earlier. They said the size of the economy in FY23 will be 10.6 per cent and 10.8 per cent lower than the FY23 GDP trend value in these two scenarios, respectively.
Ind-Ra expects private consumption spends to grow at 8.1 per cent and 8 per cent in scenario 1 and 2, respectively, in FY23, as against its earlier projection of 9.4 per cent. Similarly, investment demand, as measured by the gross fixed capita formation, is the second-largest component (27.1 per cent) of GDP from the demand side. Private capex by large corporates, which has been down and out over the past several years, has shown some promise lately in view of the rollout of the production-linked incentive scheme and increased manufacturing sector capacity utilisation driven by higher exports.
Technically, the important key resistances are placed in Nifty future are at 17575 levels, which could offer for the market on the higher side. Sustainability above this zone would signal opens the door for a directional up move with immediate resistances seen at 17606 – 17636 levels. Immediate support is placed at 17404 – 17373 levels.
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