Dear Trader…
It turned out to be a muted session on Thursday as the Nifty index oscillated in a narrow range and ended almost unchanged. Meanwhile, a mixed trend on the sectoral front kept the participants occupied wherein FMCG and IT posted decent gains while metal and energy majors were on the back foot.
Participants were anticipating some respite after the dovish tone from the US Fed however continuous decline in Adani group counters combined with the scheduled weekly expiry kept the tone negative for most of the session. Indications are pointing towards further consolidation in the index thus we recommend maintaining a sector/stock-specific approach. Among the sectors, IT, FMCG and select auto look positive to us while others may continue to trade mixed so plan accordingly.
Nifty futures opened at 17597.85 points against the previous close of 17677.25 and opened at a low of 17522.90 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 217.05 points and a rise of around 8.00 points and 17685.25 points...!!
On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise 0.15% and small cap 100 index is closing rise 0.59%. Speaking of various sectoral indices only Pharma, Metal, Financial Services and PDU Bank stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.
At the start of intra-day trading, February gold opened at Rs.58826, fell from a high of Rs.58826 points to a low of Rs.58401 with a rise of 748 points, a trend of around Rs.58700 and March Silver opened at Rs.70000, fell from a high of Rs.72336 points to a low of Rs.70000, with a rise of 2495 points, a trend of around Rs.72336.
Moody's Investors Service’s senior vice president, Christian de Guzman has said the Indian federal government's aim to achieve a fiscal deficit target of 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025/26 (FY26) could see some risks.
Guzman said the current pattern suggests that perhaps there could be some upward pressure on expenditure especially if they (government) continue with this focus on capex. The government's budget gap, which hit a high of 9.5% of GDP in 2020/21 as the spread of COVID-19 infections brought the economy to a halt, has narrowed since but remains well above the medium-term goal of 4.5% of GDP by 2025/26.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in her budget speech said India's federal government will target a budget deficit of 5.9% of GDP for 2023/24. Earlier, Moody's said the narrower fiscal deficit underscores the government's commitment to longer-term fiscal sustainability. It added that the high debt burden and weak debt affordability remain key constraints that offset India's fundamental strengths.
Technically, the important key resistances are placed in Nifty future are at 17606 levels, which could offer for the market on the higher side. Sustainability above this zone would signal opens the door for a directional up move with immediate resistances seen at 17808 – 18008 levels. Immediate support is placed at 17474 – 17404 levels.
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