Dear Trader…
Indian market opened gap down and jig-sawed between profit and loss in the first half of the session, but later stabilized and closed near days’ high. Broader market outperformed with midcap100/smallcap100 up 1.1% each. Except for IT, all the other sectors ended in green, with PSU Banks being the biggest gainer. Global markets were mixed on account of caution ahead of US Fed gathering later this week in Jackson Hole economic symposium. Even the PMI data for Germany and France fell below 50 level, though they were slightly better than expectation.
Market is increasingly worrying that the US Federal Reserve will continue to ramp up interest rates to fight inflation. Yesterday, US 10-Year Bond Yield surged over 1-month high to close above 3%, US Dollar Index closed 2-year high at 109 and US Volatility Index (CBOE US Vix) climbed up by 15%.
Nifty futures opened at 17401.10 points against the previous close of 17492.25 and opened at a low of 17383.60 points. Nifty Future closed with an average movement of 260.35 points and a rise of around 149.35 points and 17641.60 points...!!
On the NSE, the midcap 100 index will rise 1.17% and smallcap 100 index is closing rise 1.14%. Speaking of various sectoral indices, only IT stocks were seen selling on the NSE, while all other sectoral indices closed higher.
At the start of intra-day trading, October gold opened at Rs.51211, fell from a high of Rs.51320 points to a low of Rs.51110 with a decline of 15 points, a trend of around Rs.51148 and September Silver opened at Rs.54870, fell from a high of Rs.55167 points to a low of Rs.54655, with a decline of 160 points, a trend of around Rs.54832.
Meanwhile, expressing optimism over the country’s overall position, the finance ministry's monthly economic review said India is better placed on the growth-inflation-external balance triangle for 2022-23 than it was two months ago, on the back of government policy response and the Reserve Bank's monetary policy actions. On the price situation, the review said in absence of any further shocks, the downward movement of global commodity prices along with the RBI's monetary measures and the government's fiscal policies are expected to cap inflationary pressures in the coming months. It noted that softening of inflationary pressures in India is further on the anvil as the prices of important raw materials such as iron ore, copper and tin that feed into the domestic manufacturing process, globally trended downwards in July 2022. Headline retail inflation eased to 6.7 per cent in July 2022 from 7.01 per cent in the previous month.
It further said the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and eight core industries points towards strengthening of industrial activity, while PMI Manufacturing touched an 8-month high in July with marked gains in growth of new business and output. On the external front, it said, post the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, an increase in uncertainty among investors has led to capital outflows, not just from India alone but from the group of emerging market economies (EMEs) as a whole. Thus, apart from India, the currencies of several EMEs also depreciated against the US dollar. Between January and July of 2022, foreign portfolio investors pulled out $48.0 billion from EMEs.
Technically, the important key resistances are placed in Nifty future are at 17707 levels, which could offer for the market on the higher side. Sustainability above this zone would signal opens the door for a directional up move with immediate resistances seen at 17737 – 17808 levels. Immediate support is placed at 17474 – 17303 levels.
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